Please don't get me wrong, Bill. I'm not saying that this will happen anytime soon. There are many factors that might stretch out the time it will take significantly, just as there are others that might speed it up considerably. Linux is still more difficult and less user-friendly than its commercial competition. After all, it was designed by computer experts for other computer experts. Stuff like Knoppix and Ubuntu are seen by the "real" Linux community as dumbed down Linux with training wheels. Indeed, if you're not as comfortable in a shell as a GUI, you're missing out on much of what makes Linux worth using the first place.

As I mentioned earlier, I think Linux is still in its "DOS era." It's got a long ways to go before it can compete with the commercial competition. Making it happen would require a substantial investment in usability, the kind of stuff that isn't fun or useful for off-duty programmers to bother with. To see what I'm talking about, look at the Linux apps that are really polished--they're all utilities and other programs of use only to experts (compilers, servers, etc.) If you need an IDE for C or some type of shell application, they've got great tools for you. These are programs by experts for use by experts. They have a self-interest here in making sure these tools work well. Meanwhile, all the other types of programs receive attention only from do-gooders and the odd hacker or two. To put it simply, EMACS is what Linux does well. Open Office sucks.

In short, to make Linux truly competitive would mean dumping a great deal of money into its development, and who'd do that? The people who should be doing it are commercial software developers who are tired of being led by the whims of Microsoft (or Apple)--in essence, the same group that put PCs on top because they were tired of being tied down to proprietary hardware. However, these are the same people who are most afraid of Linux. They assume (wrongly) that all software for Linux is freeware.

It seems clear to me that if GNU/Linux is ever going to hit the mainstream, it'll have to be supported (at least initially) by commercial software developers selling proprietary apps. That'll mean relaxing the "separatist" approach and letting people discover the value of free software for themselves.

In short, nobody bought a PC instead of an Apple or Commodore back in the 90s because they had an ideological committment to open hardware standards. Yet, that's the same type of strategy people are using to recruit folks to GNU/Linux. Why do so many people use Firefox? Is it because they endorse FOSS? No way. They just like it because it's free and is a joy to use. When the Linux OS as a whole reaches that point, Microsoft will have its competition.