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Cebit ComputerMesse Hanover - Germany
Some friends of mine are visiting the big Cebit convention in Hanover Germany (March 15-21). What is striking is the fact that this year console gaming is getting very little attention. The X360 and Wii are sitting in fewer stand displays than last show. The Sony Entertainment division is even more absent. Sony has recreated a minute fake living room area in the business stand where the ONE PS3 that the company is showing is on display. On the floor only one other PS3 could be spotted.
PC manufacturers put a lot of attention on PC gaming, just like Microsoft is doing, perhaps this is part of some evil plot to destroy the console gaming market in Europe. Intel even went as far as to destroy 5 Formula 1 cars and display them on their stand to promote the speed of their new chips.
The poor state the console market seems to be in Europe makes it logical for PC manufacturers and Microsoft to invest in PC gaming. European consumers might be the most patient ones on the globe (despite the fact that they are more or less forced into it) but playing videogames is something that more and more people do, a lot of them are casual gamers. We europeans might as well do it on our pc's then. But mind you 40 to 60% of Dutch households has a gameconsole connected to a tv set somewhere. Don't know about other European countries, but perhaps what we are seeing here in Europe is something of a shift in the gaming industry again. Perhaps Shane Monroe is right and the next crash in eminent if the console gaming industry doesn't get their act together. At least in the European territories.
http://www.cebit.de/homepage_e
Firing up the Picodrive Genesis/Megadrive on my gp2x. I prefer playing games on consoles, but perhaps I was born on the wrong side of the globe.
- Mark Vergeer's blog
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Comments
Newcomer More Likely
I'd definitely agree with Bill with this one. I'd never buy a modern console, but I do acknowledge that they provide better gaming hardware for a lower price than the equivalent PC. Sure, you might be able to build a decent gaming rig for $800, but that's still much more than most consoles. If you're only interest is playing games (i.e., no interest at all in word processing or what have you), then that's clearly the way to go. It also helps if you're content with owning only 3-4 games, or perhaps only buying 1-2 games per year, or shopping in bargain bins. Clearly, things get cost prohibitive very quickly if you're buying 12-15 new games a year. It wouldn't take long for someone to spend well over $800 on any of the modern consoles that way.
What seems to have happened historically is that whenever the big companies keep disappointing the public, some newcomer will rush in to fill the gap. It wasn't long ago when Sony and Microsoft were unknowns, or Sega for that matter. But something about this PSP story reminds me of the Lyn x. Advanced hardware, but it just didn't click.
Ahem. A person can't be
Ahem. A person can't be right about something if they've been predicting it for the past 8+ years. A prediction has to happen in a reasonable timeframe and that's long since passed. I've said it from the beginning and will stick to it to the end of time, there will NEVER be another crash. Of the two crashes that happened in the late 70's and mid 80's, respectively - obviously the latter crash being more impactful since there was more to lose and hence got the name "The Great Videogame Crash" - there were market conditions that were considerably different than what we've had ever since post second crash (late 1985 and beyond). The videogame market back then was composed of lots of smaller players with limited financial backing and a buying public who was still adjusting to the idea of videogames. The videogame industry grew faster than demand and there were some colossally bad decisions made, especially with no prior history to draw on. Now, with videogames permeating popular culture and demand constantly on the rise with much bigger players with much deeper pockets and even more profits to be made, videogames are not going anywhere. Once something becomes part of popular culture, you can't get it out, even with early growing pains (television anyone? rock music?). With videogames on every device imaginable and even used a pack-ins in cereal boxes, etc., there's no possibility of a crash. Where there's money to be made, there will be product, plain and simple.
As with any major industry though, there CAN be seasonal depressions and even overall depressions, but that's far different from a "crash". It's the difference between making $4 billion one year and "only" $3.5 billion the next, or flat growth versus double digit growth year on year. These things are also cyclical as we go through new technological cycles. All things considered, we made the transition from the moribund Gamecube and now all-but-dead Xbox very smoothly. The PS2 is still hanging on and in many ways still dominating.
I don't think any of what I said doesn't apply to ALL territories. I do understand your frustration Mark, but I think your case is more an example of demand NOT being met, not there being supply and no demand as would beget a crash or depression. There's a big difference.
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Bill Loguidice, Managing Director
Armchair Arcade, Inc.
(A PC Magazine Top 100 Website)
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